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Fundamental Analysis

Gedamo_Small_5In the currency market, fundamental analysis is based on observation of the macroeconomic situation in a given country and the world and analysis of how economic changes affect the demand and supply for a given currency and, consequently, the level its quotation. To this end we must follow in real time political events, economic and social and macroeconomic indicators that testify to observe the economic status of a given country.

The publication of macroeconomic data is one of the most carefully observed by "fundamentalists".

The macroeconomic data are presented according to a previously established schedule, published by news agencies along with weather data indexes. If the published index is not very different from the estimates made previously on the market probably will not happen anything significant. If the macroeconomic data are published post in a surprising way from expectations, the market will probably react so nervous, giving the opportunity to earn quell'investitore who had expected them accurately the value of a given index.

The specific feature of the currency market is the reaction to the published data and the existence of so-called phenomenon of the discount information in the future. The investor must determine whether the information or future events that are planned already been discounted by the market price or not. The publication of information universally expectations will not have a great influence on the market because it's likely already been taken into account in the quotation currency. Information may move the market at the time of its distribution only when it was expected.

The monetary policy of central banks is very important from the standpoint of fundamental analysis. The level of interest rates determined by them and open market operations and monetary actions affect the situation in the currency market and are subject to careful observations by analysts.

Even the most tragic events such as wars, terrorist attacks and disasters affecting the currency market. Where there is a crisis, investors took refuge on safer currencies. More often, however, are the gold and raw materials to benefit phases of instability in international politics.

We must look very carefully the answers of members of government and opposition groups, directors of central banks and people who have a great influence on monetary policy. The stability of a nation's political scene aumentra attraction for its currency by foreign investors, which attracts capital and strengthens the domestic currency. The worsening political situation may cause a violent withdrawal of invested assets and an increase in the prices of currencies.

A similar argument can be made as regards the official rate of a currency. Usually an increase in rates has a bullish effect on the currency as the deposits in that currency will pay more interest and therefore investors will want to hold and boost demand.

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